A former top Food and Drug Administration (FDA) official believes it’s most likely that marijuana will be put in Schedule III of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) following an ongoing administrative review ordered by President Biden last year. FDA is mindful of political factors such as the 2024 election, the official said, so a policy change may come sooner rather than later.

Howard Sklamberg, who previously served as chair of FDA’s Marijuana Working Group from 2014 to 2017, spoke about the possible outcomes of the review, the impact of rescheduling and the agency’s timeline on a Mindset Capital podcast released on Thursday.

There are two things that “certainly won’t happen” with FDA’s scheduling review, Sklamberg predicted: a recommendation to keep cannabis in Schedule I or guidance to deschedule it altogether.

The agency has more flexibility since it last looked into marijuana scheduling, in 2016, so maintaining the status quo is unlikely, he said. On the other hand, descheduling “would be extremely difficult for FDA” given regulatory restraints.

“As far as the Goldilocks position, if I were a betting man, I think the most likely outcome will be Schedule III,” said Sklamberg, now an attorney at the firm Arnold & Porter. He added that while Schedule II is still a possibility, it wouldn’t have the same practical impact on issues such as allowing cannabis businesses to take federal tax deductions. FDA isn’t supposed to be “results-oriented,” he said, but the context does matter.

The former official also discussed the government’s rescheduling timeline, pushing back against the notion that the review process will take years as it has in the past.

“This is not on the normal timetable. They are aware of the importance of the issue, the interest of the issue, the White House’s interest in the issue—and they’re frankly aware of the election cycle and the administration’s term coming to an end at the end of 2024,” he said. “I think all those things come together.”

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